The NBA Finals are heading back to San Antonio with the Larry O'Brien Trophy within reach, but the series has taken a wild turn. After the New York Knicks pulled off a jaw-dropping 29-point comeback in Game 4, the Spurs are now fighting for survival on their home court. And according to ESPN's matchup predictor, the numbers say San Antonio has the edge.
ESPN's computer model gives the Spurs a 56.8% chance of winning Game 5, which would force a Game 6 back in New York. It's a vote of confidence for a team that just suffered one of the most gut-wrenching losses in Finals history. The Spurs blew a massive lead at Madison Square Garden, and now they have to regroup in front of their own fans.
Jalen Brunson was the engine of the Knicks' historic rally, dropping 36 points and refusing to let his team quit. But it was OG Anunoby who delivered the dagger—a game-saving block on De'Aaron Fox followed by a go-ahead bucket with just 1.2 seconds left. The sequence had the Garden erupting and left the Spurs shell-shocked.
“You have to have a little luck in life,” Knicks coach Mike Brown said after the game. “You’ve got to have a little luck in sports. But you can also make your luck too. So you’ve got to have some natural luck and some luck where you’re going to make your own luck, and that was probably the biggest message.”
The Spurs are no strangers to adversity. They played their best basketball when their backs were against the wall in the Western Conference Finals against the Oklahoma City Thunder, and they'll need that same resilience now. But the pressure is mounting, especially after the team decided to stick with De'Aaron Fox for Game 5 despite a fan uproar calling for his benching after the Game 4 collapse.
San Antonio's coach Mitch Johnson has also faced criticism for his demeanor after the historic loss, with some questioning whether the team has the right mindset to bounce back. But the Spurs have home-court advantage, and oddsmakers agree with ESPN's model—they're favoring San Antonio to win this elimination game.
Meanwhile, the Knicks are riding an emotional high. Magic Johnson recently shut down critics who question Jalen Brunson's size, calling him a winner—and after Game 4, it's hard to argue. The Knicks have shown they can overcome any deficit, but they know the Spurs will be desperate on their home floor.
Tipoff for Game 5 is set for 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC. The Spurs are looking to avoid a 3-1 series hole, while the Knicks want to keep their foot on the gas. One thing is certain: this series is far from over.
