Mother Nature is turning up the heat—and the wind—this Monday. Four states in the heart of the Midwest are staring down a 15% chance of tornadoes, a threat that has the National Weather Service putting 12 states on alert for potentially dangerous twisters.
The states with the highest risk—Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, and Missouri—are no strangers to severe weather, but Monday morning’s forecast has forecasters paying close attention. The tornado watch tonight covers these four states as the primary zone of concern, with a 15% probability of tornado activity during the early hours.
What’s Driving the Risk?
Meteorologists point to a volatile mix of warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico clashing with a strong cold front sweeping across the Plains. That collision often sparks supercell thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center highlights that the risk isn't just for isolated funnels—some storms could produce significant tornadoes, meaning they could be on the ground for a while and cause substantial damage.
In addition to the four states in the crosshairs, several others—including Oklahoma, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Arkansas—are under a broader watch, with a lower but still notable chance of severe weather. This tornado threat looms over 10 states in total, but the highest probability is concentrated in the central Plains.
Safety First: What to Do If a Tornado Hits
When the sirens sound, every second counts. Here’s a quick refresher on how to stay safe, whether you’re at home, at work, or on the road.
At Home
Head to the basement, a safe room, or an interior room on the lowest floor—away from windows. If you have pets, bring them along if time allows. Stay put until the warning expires.
At Work or School
Follow your building’s tornado drill. Move calmly to the designated shelter area, staying clear of windows, and avoid large, open spaces like cafeterias or gyms. The goal is to get to a small, windowless interior space.
Outside
If you’re caught outdoors, seek shelter in a sturdy building immediately. Sheds, storage facilities, mobile homes, and tents offer little to no protection—they can be tossed or flattened. A ditch or low-lying area is a last resort if no building is available.
In a Vehicle
This is the most dangerous place to be during a tornado. Your best bet is to drive to the nearest sturdy shelter. If you can’t make it, either crouch down in the car with your head covered, or abandon the vehicle and lie flat in a ditch or ravine. Never try to outrun a tornado in a car.
This Monday’s forecast is a stark reminder of how quickly spring weather can turn deadly. The states at highest risk are bracing for a rough morning, but with preparation and caution, residents can ride out the storm. Stay tuned to local news and NOAA Weather Radio for updates, and don’t let your guard down—even if the skies seem calm.
For more on how these storms compare to recent severe weather events, check out our report on giant hail and 75 mph winds hitting 5 states. And if you’re in the path of this system, keep an eye on the 12 Midwest states facing a twister threat Sunday for a broader picture of this active weather pattern.
