Just a year ago, Garrett Nussmeier was the talk of the quarterback class. Analysts pegged him as a potential top pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, maybe even the best signal-caller available. But as the final rounds of the draft unfolded, reality hit hard. Nussmeier sat waiting while eight other QBs heard their names called—some familiar, others barely recognizable.
So what went wrong? According to NFL insider Albert Breer, two major factors explain the stunning slide. First, a lingering injury that Nussmeier battled through in 2025. Breer reports the quarterback dealt with oblique pain stemming from a nerve problem, and a cyst in his back required attention. This health concern raised red flags for teams evaluating his long-term durability.
The second factor is the tape itself. Nussmeier’s 2025 season at LSU was a far cry from the breakout campaign many expected. While he completed over 67% of his passes, he managed fewer than 2,000 yards and only 12 touchdowns across nine games. For a prospect once considered elite, those numbers simply didn’t stack up.
“Nussmeier dealt with oblique pain last year, as a result of a nerve problem. A cyst was found in his back, and that’s at least part of this. His tape not being great last year is the other obvious factor,” Breer reported.
The Perils of Returning to School
Nussmeier’s decision to return for a fifth season at LSU backfired spectacularly. In 2024, he looked like a future NFL starter: 64.2% completion rate, 4,052 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. Despite the high turnover count, his consistency and arm talent made him a projected early-round pick. But 2025 brought chaos. Head coach Brian Kelly was fired midseason, and the team’s controversial replacement with Lane Kiffin from Ole Miss only added to the turmoil.
His situation serves as a cautionary tale for other prospects considering a return to school. Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss and others like Dante Moore have faced similar scrutiny after opting to stay in college. Draft stock is never guaranteed to rise—more often, it plummets.
For Nussmeier, the hope now is that his health issues resolve before training camp. The tape? Only time and coaching can fix that. But his fall from grace is a stark reminder that in the NFL draft, hype doesn’t last forever.
