The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are walking a tightrope with their quarterback situation, and not everyone is convinced they'll stick the landing. After Baker Mayfield stepped into the massive shoes of Tom Brady and kept the offense humming, you'd think the team would be eager to lock him down. But instead, they're playing hardball—and one NFL insider is calling it a dangerous game.
ProFootballTalk's Mike Florio recently labeled the Bucs' approach a 'big risk,' pointing to reports that the franchise is in 'no rush' to extend Mayfield's contract. Meanwhile, Mayfield's camp has drawn a line in the sand: get a deal done by the start of training camp on July 28, or he'll hit free agency in 2027. That gives Tampa Bay less than three weeks to make a move.
The Numbers Game
Florio broke down the financial stakes, noting that Mayfield is set to earn $40 million this year thanks to carryover money from 2025, but his average annual value sits at $33.33 million. The actual cash due this season is $27 million, with up to $5 million in incentives. The Bucs reportedly believe their offer will top anything Mayfield could get elsewhere, and they're confident he'll accept when they lay their final card on the table—likely just before the deadline.
But that confidence might be misplaced. As Florio tweeted, 'The Bucs seem to believe they’ll offer Baker Mayfield more than any other team would. This overlooks the possibility that Mayfield would take less from another team in March, just to make a point.'
Mayfield's Rollercoaster Run
From 2023 to 2024, Mayfield was a revelation for Tampa Bay. He threw for over 4,000 yards each season, completed nearly 68% of his passes, earned two Pro Bowl nods, and led the team to back-to-back playoff appearances. It was a remarkable revival for a quarterback who had been written off by Cleveland and Carolina.
But 2025 was a different story. Mayfield hit three-year lows in completion rate, passing yards, and touchdowns. More importantly, the Bucs stumbled to an 8-9 record and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2019. That dip in performance might explain why the front office is hesitant to break the bank.
A Risky Strategy
The Bucs' gamble echoes other high-stakes moves across sports, like the NASCAR's Prime Video gamble that paid off with surging ratings. But in the NFL, where quarterback stability is gold, dragging your feet can backfire. If Mayfield walks, Tampa Bay could be left scrambling for a starter—a scenario that would make their current 'big risk' look like a full-blown blunder.
For now, all eyes are on July 28. Will the Bucs blink and meet Mayfield's deadline, or will they let him test the market? Either way, this standoff is shaping up to be one of the summer's most intriguing storylines.
