Just a few months ago, Arch Manning was the consensus No. 1 pick for the 2027 NFL Draft. Now, after a shaky start to the season, the Texas quarterback is fighting to stay in the first-round conversation—and some league insiders wonder if he'll even enter the draft at all.
Manning's numbers aren't terrible—1,295 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, and five interceptions through six games—but the tape tells a different story. A costly pick-six in the Red River rivalry loss to Oklahoma and a game-losing fumble at home against Texas have left scouts questioning his poise under pressure.
“I haven’t put good film on tape for the last five weeks, and I’m going to be better,” Manning told reporters. “I’m going to be better for my teammates. I’m going to be better for myself and I’m going to be better for my coaches.”
That self-awareness is admirable, but it doesn't erase the growing skepticism. NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reported that multiple executives doubt Manning and other top quarterbacks will even declare for the 2027 draft, given the recent struggles and the fact that Texas has closed practices to scouts.
The Manning family is no stranger to draft decisions. Uncle Eli has already spoken publicly about the benefits of staying in school another year, pointing to the value of experience, team leadership, and chasing an SEC title over rushing to the pros.
“Every year it’s an opportunity to play more games, get more prepared for the NFL, to win an SEC championship, to be a captain of the team,” Eli said. “It’s not just about getting to the NFL and going the next step. It’s about enjoying your experience, enjoying your teammates and building something special.”
But staying in college isn't a guaranteed fix. The bigger question might be whether head coach Steve Sarkisian is the right mentor to get Manning back on track. With Sarkisian hinting at a quarterback competition in Austin, Manning's grip on the starting job isn't as secure as it once seemed.
Meanwhile, draft analysts are scrambling to adjust their boards. Manning has fallen out of Mel Kiper's top 10 for 2027, and the once-stacked quarterback class looks thinner by the week. A brutal Saturday for the QB class only reinforced the concerns.
Some evaluators still believe in the pedigree—the arm talent, the athleticism, the football IQ. But as Manning's regression fuels doubt about his NFL future, the pressure is mounting. He has two months to turn it around, starting Saturday against Ole Miss.
If he can't, the decision might be made for him: another year in college, not because he wants it, but because he needs it. And even then, there's no guarantee the skepticism will fade.
