Just a few months ago, Arch Manning was the consensus favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. But after a rocky start to the 2026 college football season, the Texas Longhorns quarterback has fallen out of ESPN analyst Mel Kiper Jr.'s latest top-10 prospect rankings.
Kiper's updated list, released this week, includes four quarterbacks — but Manning is not one of them. The omission comes after a six-game stretch that has left scouts and analysts questioning whether Manning can live up to the hype.
Manning's struggles under the microscope
Manning's most recent outing, a loss to Oklahoma, drew sharp criticism from prominent college football voices. Paul Finebaum didn't hold back on The Matt Barrie Show.
“We showed arrogance in believing that Arch Manning can do anything. And he almost did, except he finally got in the way of himself,” Finebaum said. “I was really troubled by how he had played up to this point. I came away thinking, I don’t know what this guy’s going to do. Because he is not the elite player that we all tried to make him out to be. He can be great in moments, as we saw near the end of the game, but he can just be downright stupid in others.”
Urban Meyer, the former Ohio State and Florida head coach, echoed a similar sentiment on his Triple Option podcast. Meyer argued that Manning is merely a good quarterback, not a great one.
“His freshman year when he played a handful of games against lesser opponents, and then, me and you, Rob, sat there together and you said, GMs are watching this and a first-round Heisman, remember I looked at you and go ‘he’s not that good yet,’” Meyer said. “No one’s saying that anymore. Maybe a year from now. Is he a bad quarterback? No, he’s a good quarterback, but he’s just not living up to everybody’s expectations.”
Kiper's new top 10 shakes up the draft landscape
Kiper's revised rankings signal a significant shift in how the 2027 draft class is being evaluated. With four signal-callers ahead of Manning, the quarterback hierarchy is in flux. This development could have major implications for teams like the New York Jets, who are projected to hold multiple top-15 picks and could be in the market for a franchise quarterback.
While Manning's draft stock has plummeted, other prospects have seized the opportunity to climb. The updated list reflects a season that has been full of surprises, much like the recent draft projections for the Jets that have already caused a stir.
Can Manning bounce back?
At this point, Manning's path back to the top of the draft board is clear: he needs to perform. With several games remaining in the regular season, he has a chance to silence his critics and prove he belongs among the elite. But as Kiper's rankings show, the margin for error is shrinking.
The Longhorns' schedule doesn't get easier, and every misstep will be magnified. Manning's ability to handle the pressure will be key, not just for Texas's playoff hopes, but for his own professional future.
For now, though, the narrative has shifted. The once-unquestioned No. 1 pick is now an afterthought in some draft conversations. Whether he can reclaim his status remains one of the most compelling storylines of the college football season.
