The 2025 college football season was a bloodbath for head coaches, with a dozen fired mid-season and more shown the door after the final whistle. As the 2026 campaign looms, USA Today's Blake Toppmeyer has released his annual heat check, identifying 11 coaches who need a strong start or else they might be cleaning out their offices before Thanksgiving.
Toppmeyer's list, published this week, splits the coaches into three tiers: six on the 'scalding hot seat', five in the 'could get hot' category, and three under the 'fine, but keep an eye on' label. The most explosive name on the list? None other than Bill Belichick, the six-time Super Bowl champion who traded the NFL sidelines for Chapel Hill.
The Scalding Six
Joining Belichick in the danger zone are Wisconsin's Luke Fickell, Florida State's Mike Norvell, Baylor's Dave Aranda, Maryland's Mike Locksley, and South Carolina's Shane Beamer. Each has a resume of recent struggles, but Belichick's situation is uniquely chaotic.
Toppmeyer didn't mince words: "Belichick hasn't just been bad for North Carolina. He's been a national embarrassment." He pointed to Belichick's bizarre pre-season CBS interview, the ongoing drama with his 25-year-old girlfriend (dubbed his 'Muse') who has publicly feuded with the university, and the administrative leave taken by his general manager. At 74, Belichick isn't exactly a long-term project, and Toppmeyer argues that if the Tar Heels don't win now, the school might be better off paying the $10 million buyout after this season.
Pressure Building Elsewhere
The second tier includes Cincinnati's Scott Satterfield, Mississippi State's Jeff Lebby, Boston College's Bill O'Brien, MTSU's Derek Mason, and USC's Lincoln Riley. Riley's inclusion is particularly notable given the Trojans' massive investment in him after poaching him from Oklahoma. With no playoff appearances and a best season that came in his first year, the honeymoon is long over. Toppmeyer notes that USC's private status keeps Riley's buyout under wraps, but it's believed to be hefty—maybe the only thing keeping him off the scorching list. Still, with an experienced roster returning, the pressure is on in Year 5.
On the Radar
Clemson's Dabo Swinney, Nebraska's Matt Rhule, and Oklahoma's Brent Venables are listed as 'fine, but keep an eye on.' These are names that could heat up quickly if their teams stumble out of the gate.
Of course, surprises are always part of the college football landscape. Last year, who would have predicted James Franklin's dismissal or the whirlwind around Sherrone Moore shortly after the season? The 2026 season is already shaping up to be another wild ride, and these 11 coaches will be holding on tight to their headsets.
For more on the coaching carousel and the latest in college football, check out our coverage of the latest Coaches Poll controversy and the top teams in the early rankings.
