Mark Cuban may no longer be an NBA owner, but the billionaire investor still has a sharp eye on the league's future. And his latest prediction? A seismic shift in how teams approach the draft and trade market.
The NBA is pushing forward with a significant overhaul of its draft lottery system. Under the proposed changes, the lottery would expand from 14 to 16 teams, and the odds would be flattened dramatically. Instead of the three worst teams having the best chance at the top pick, teams finishing fourth through tenth would all share equal odds—essentially punishing the league's cellar-dwellers and rewarding mid-tier squads.
Commissioner Adam Silver has framed the changes as a way to curb tanking, but Cuban sees a different kind of chaos emerging. In a detailed post on social media, the former Dallas Mavericks owner broke down what he believes will be the biggest consequence: an explosion in trades.
"When you flatten the odds, the number of trades will explode," Cuban wrote. "It was impossible to know who would win the tankathon in the off season, and the leading tankers aren't trading their picks at the deadline. BUT you can have a good idea who isn't a top 8 team in your conference. And teams will do everything they can to trade for their firsts."
Cuban's logic is rooted in math. Under the new system, two non-playoff first-round picks—each with a 5.4% chance at the top spot—would give a team combined odds equal to a fourth- or fifth-place tanker. That arithmetic, he argues, will turn every rebuilding club into a potential trade partner.
"Get 2 non playoff firsts in a draft, and you have a good shot of having better odds than the bottom 3 this year," Cuban explained. "The question is what puts you in a position to trade for 1sts?"
The former owner also predicted that the race to avoid the bottom three will become a compelling storyline in its own right. "I think the games to stay out of the bottom 3 will be fun," he wrote. He praised the league's proposed protection limits, which aim to prevent play-in teams from tanking for draft position while still competing for a postseason spot.
But the real action, Cuban says, will happen before the trade deadline. Once a team realizes it can't fall into the bottom three—indicated by a "little c" next to its name in the standings—it can get aggressive. "If you don't have a team you like, you make any trade that gets you a first," he added.
The proposed changes have already drawn sharp criticism from some corners of the league. Fans Furious: Adam Silver Must Go After 'Terrible' Draft Lottery Overhaul captures the backlash from those who believe the new system undermines the value of a full rebuild.
Still, Cuban's vision of a trade-heavy future resonates with many around the league. If his prediction holds, the NBA could look very different in a few years—less about the race to the bottom and more about the scramble for picks. And as NFL Drops Hint: 2026 Schedule Drop Coming in May shows, other sports are also adjusting their calendars and rules to keep fans engaged.
Whether you love or hate the lottery changes, one thing is clear: Mark Cuban expects the NBA to get a whole lot more interesting. And in a league that thrives on drama, that's saying something.
