The countdown to the 2026 NFL Draft is officially in its final week, and ESPN's longtime draft guru Mel Kiper Jr. has fired his last pre-draft salvo. His final mock draft is here, and it paints a picture of a top ten dominated by scarlet and gray, with a Heisman-winning quarterback leading the charge.
The Buckeye Bonanza
Kiper's projection delivers a stunning statement on the state of college football talent: four Ohio State Buckeyes are slated to come off the board within the first eight selections. This unprecedented run would see safety Caleb Downs (No. 5 to the Giants), linebacker Sonny Styles (No. 6 to the Cowboys), and wide receiver Carnell Tate (No. 7 to the Commanders) following pass rusher Arvell Reese, who is projected to go third overall to the Arizona Cardinals. It's a testament to the recruiting powerhouse Ryan Day has built, and it sets the stage for a potentially dramatic draft night where teams might jockey for position to secure these elite prospects.
The Top of the Board
While the Buckeye surge is the headline, the very top of the draft follows a more conventional script. Kiper has the Las Vegas Raiders, holding the coveted first overall pick, selecting Indiana quarterback and Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza. "It's the easiest call on the board," the logic follows, giving the Raiders a new franchise cornerstone. At No. 2, the New York Jets are pegged to take Texas Tech edge rusher David Bailey, with his Ohio State counterpart, Arvell Reese, landing in Arizona one pick later. The Tennessee Titans round out the top four with Notre Dame's dynamic running back, Jeremiyah Love.
Here's a look at Kiper's full projected top 10:
- 1. Las Vegas Raiders: QB Fernando Mendoza, Indiana
- 2. New York Jets: LB/EDGE David Bailey, Texas Tech
- 3. Arizona Cardinals: LB/EDGE Arvell Reese, Ohio State
- 4. Tennessee Titans: RB Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame
- 5. New York Giants: SAF Caleb Downs, Ohio State
- 6. Dallas Cowboys: LB Sonny Styles, Ohio State
- 7. Washington Commanders: WR Carnell Tate, Ohio State
- 8. New Orleans Saints: EDGE Reuben Bain Jr., Miami
- 9. Kansas City Chiefs: WR Jordyn Tyson, Arizona State
- 10. Cincinnati Bengals: CB Mansoor Delane, LSU
Kiper also forecasts a late-first-round move, with the Cardinals trading back in at pick No. 30 to snag Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson, adding intrigue to their offseason plans.
A Voice Under Scrutiny
While the predictions are bold, the reaction from the football community has been laced with skepticism. Kiper's reputation took a notable hit during the last draft cycle following his vehement, season-long advocacy for Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders as a top-five talent—a rating that many scouts and fans fiercely disputed. That episode has left a lasting mark, casting a shadow of doubt over his latest projections.
The sentiment was echoed loudly on social media following the mock's release. One fan quipped, "Mel Kiper dropping his final mock is like that one friend who swears his fantasy team will win every year… then watches it all collapse by week 6." Another offered a more blunt assessment: "Mel Kiper hasn't been right since the leather helmet era, why are we still acting like his fan fiction is news?" A third lamented, "Lost some respect for Mel over his obsession with Sanders last year. It may be time for a new voice with deeper, unbiased opinions." This criticism highlights the evolving landscape of draft analysis, where fans increasingly turn to a wider array of voices, including former coaches like Brian Kelly in his new CBS role.
Other points of contention included the complete absence of offensive linemen in Kiper's top ten, a scenario many find difficult to believe given the perennial premium on protecting the quarterback.
Missing the Controversy?
Interestingly, Kiper's final forecast may lack the kind of lightning-rod prospect that has defined recent drafts. Outside of the projected late-first-round move for Ty Simpson, there is no clear, divisive talent expected to send Kiper or other analysts into a frenzy on draft night. "As much as people expect Kiper to lose his mind on draft night again, that's probably not happening this time," the analysis concludes, suggesting a potentially more straightforward—or at least less emotionally charged—first round.
Whether Kiper's vision of a Buckeye-heavy top ten comes to pass remains to be seen. But one week out from the main event, his final mock has successfully set the debate, reaffirmed his bold style, and reminded everyone that in the draft, certainty is the first casualty. All eyes now turn to the draft stage, where projections meet reality, and franchises' futures are decided.
