Fourth of July weekend means one thing for sports fans: the annual Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest, and all eyes are on the man who's made it his personal buffet. Joey Chestnut, a 17-time champion and the No. 1-ranked competitive eater in the world, is back after missing the 2024 event due to a sponsorship dust-up with Major League Eating. This year, he's not just competing—he's expected to dominate like a freight train on a hot dog bun.
According to Action Network, Chestnut's implied chance of winning this Saturday's contest is a staggering 96.2%. That's not just a favorite; that's a near certainty that makes most sports betting lines look modest. He's even given a 56% chance of scarfing down 70 or more hot dogs and buns in the 10-minute frenzy at Coney Island. For context, that's like predicting LeBron James will score 40 points in a playoff game—except it's happening on a stage where the only defense is gravity.
“Chestnut is priced less like a traditional favorite and more like a near certainty, despite facing strong contenders such as Patrick ‘Deep Dish’ Bertoletti, who won Nathan’s in 2024,” an Action Network spokesperson said. “The real suspense this year may not be whether Chestnut wins, but how close he comes to making history again.”
Bertoletti, the Chicago-style eater who took the crown in Chestnut's absence, is no slouch. But the odds suggest he's facing a Goliath with a bottomless stomach. Chestnut's own record of 76 hot dogs and buns—set in 2021—still looms large, and Action Network gives him a 17% chance of surpassing that mark. That's a long shot, but for a guy who's already consumed more wieners than most of us will see in a lifetime, it's not out of the question.
The 42-year-old Chestnut has been cleared by Major League Eating after a battery case earlier this year, and he's locked in for a return to Nathan's in 2026 despite some legal woes that could have derailed his career. His comeback story is already one for the books, but the real drama might be whether he can etch his name even deeper into the record books.
Fans can catch all the action on ESPN, which will televise the event for the 23rd straight year. The women's competition kicks off at 10:45 a.m. ET, followed by the men's contest at noon ET on ESPN2. At 12:30 p.m. ET, the men's event will simulcast on ABC, giving Chestnut's legion of followers a front-row seat to his attempt at history. It's a Fourth of July tradition that rivals fireworks and backyard barbecues, and this year, it's got the added spice of a potential record chase.
So, will Chestnut break his own record? The odds say it's a long shot, but if there's one thing we've learned from watching him over the years, it's that betting against him is like betting against a tidal wave. He's the undisputed king of competitive eating, and this July Fourth, he's ready to prove it once again.
