The NFL's opening Sunday delivered its usual mix of surprises, blowouts, and heartbreak. The Giants stunned the Cowboys, the Browns were dismantled by the Jaguars, the Packers fell to the Vikings, and the 49ers steamrolled the Rams. But as the dust settles, one question looms: which teams are already in serious trouble?
ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) has the answer. The model, which is designed to predict team strength and performance for the rest of the season, has released its first in-season rankings. After simulating the remaining schedule 10,000 times, FPI has identified the five teams that are currently projected to be the worst in the league.
While the full list is a closely guarded secret until the reveal, the model's methodology is clear. FPI combines expected points added on offense, defense, and special teams to create a single rating. That rating then drives all game-level and season-level projections. In the preseason, the model leans heavily on Vegas expectations—win totals and money lines—to establish a baseline for each team.
After Week 1, the FPI has already shifted its outlook based on actual results. Teams that stumbled out of the gate have seen their ratings plummet, while those that impressed have climbed the ladder. The five worst teams, according to FPI, are now facing an uphill battle to turn their seasons around.
For fans of these franchises, the news is sobering. But it's still early, and as the model itself notes, ratings and projections update daily. A strong Week 2 performance could quickly change the narrative.
Interestingly, the FPI's early rankings come on the same weekend that ESPN's model dropped the Rams after their ugly opener, making the 49ers the new Super Bowl favorites. That shift in the top tier only highlights how volatile the early season can be.
Meanwhile, the NFL's opening Sunday also sparked debates off the field. Some fans are already calling for changes to the broadcast lineup, with pressure mounting on NBC to drop Carrie Underwood from Sunday Night Football. And the US Open men's final faced growing calls to move off the NFL's opening Sunday to avoid the clash.
But for now, the focus is on the field. The FPI's bottom five teams will need to find answers quickly if they hope to climb out of the cellar. With 16 games still to play, there's plenty of time for redemption—but the data suggests these teams have a long road ahead.
