The NFL season is only two weeks old, but ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) is already shuffling its Super Bowl deck. The preseason darling Los Angeles Rams have been bumped from the top spot in the NFC, replaced by a familiar face: the San Francisco 49ers.
According to the latest FPI update, the 49ers are now the projected NFC champions, with Kyle Shanahan eyeing his third Super Bowl appearance since taking over in 2017. The Rams, who opened as the model's pick to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, have slipped after a rocky start—though they're still very much in the conversation.
On the AFC side, the Buffalo Bills remain the team to beat. Josh Allen has been electric through two games, and the Bills' 2-0 start has only solidified their status as the conference's front-runners. The Kansas City Chiefs, meanwhile, have silenced early doubters with wins over the Broncos and Colts, powered by the trio of Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Kenneth Walker.
But the NFC is where the drama is brewing. The 49ers' rise isn't just about their own performance—it's also about the Rams' stumble. Los Angeles dropped its season opener, and while they bounced back in Week 2, the FPI has clearly seen enough to flip its allegiance. This shift echoes the 49ers leapfrogging the Bills in the model's Week 2 rankings, a move that signaled San Francisco's growing momentum.
The 49ers' path to the Super Bowl won't be easy. The NFC is loaded with contenders, including the Seattle Seahawks, who just dismantled the Arizona Cardinals 31-7. Even without starting quarterback Sam Darnold, Seattle looks dangerous, thanks to Jaxon Smith-Njigba's breakout performance—155 yards and three touchdowns.
For the Rams, the message is clear: early-season struggles can cost you in the analytics game. But as we've seen before, the FPI is far from infallible. Last year, the model's preseason pick didn't even make the playoffs. So while the 49ers are the new favorites, there's plenty of football left to be played.
As October approaches, expect more volatility in the projections. The FPI is a living, breathing algorithm that reacts to every snap, every injury, and every upset. If the Rams can string together wins, they could easily reclaim their spot. If the 49ers stumble, the door swings open for another NFC team.
One thing's for sure: the Super Bowl picture is far from settled. With stars like Mahomes, Allen, and Shanahan's crew all in the mix, February's big game could feature any number of matchups. But for now, the computer says San Francisco vs. Buffalo—and that's a showdown nobody would mind watching.
