Week 2 of the 2026 NFL season is officially here, and the race for the Super Bowl is already heating up. After a wild opening weekend, ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) has crunched the numbers and delivered its latest list of championship frontrunners.
Topping the list are the San Francisco 49ers, who made a statement with a decisive victory over the Rams in Australia. The 49ers' dominant performance has vaulted them to the No. 1 spot in the model's projections, making them the team to beat as the season progresses.
Right behind them are the Buffalo Bills, who are hungry for their first Super Bowl title. With Josh Allen leading the charge, the Bills have been perennial contenders but have faced heartbreak in recent postseasons. They'll look to change that narrative this winter, and the FPI believes they have a strong shot.
Here's the complete top 10 according to ESPN's FPI heading into Thursday night's kickoff:
- San Francisco 49ers
- Buffalo Bills
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Cincinnati Bengals
- Dallas Cowboys
- Baltimore Ravens
- Miami Dolphins
- Detroit Lions
- Los Angeles Rams
Interestingly, the Rams are the only team in the top 10 that lost their opening game. Their Week 1 defeat didn't shake the model's confidence too much, but it's a reminder that even the best teams can stumble. For more on that, check out why the Rams remain contenders.
The FPI is a sophisticated metric that measures team strength, projecting results based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. It factors in results to date, remaining schedule, and overall roster talent, updating daily as new data comes in.
Thursday night's game between the Bills and Lions at Buffalo's new stadium is a marquee matchup that could shake up these rankings. A win for the Bills would solidify their status, while the Lions—who are also in the top 10—could make a statement of their own.
As the season unfolds, these projections will shift, but for now, the 49ers and Bills are the teams to watch. For a different perspective on the early favorites, ESPN's model drops the Rams after their ugly opener.
With 17 weeks of football ahead, anything can happen. But if the FPI is any indication, the road to Super Bowl LXI will go through San Francisco or Buffalo. Kickoff for Thursday's game is set for 8:15 p.m. ET.
