Mother Nature is about to unleash a fury of ice from the sky tonight, as a powerful thunderstorm packing hail the size of baseballs threatens to pummel parts of two states. The National Weather Service has placed central North Dakota and northern Minnesota on high alert for severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail measuring between 1 and 3 inches in diameter.
The storm system is expected to roll in Friday afternoon and persist into the evening, bringing with it a volatile mix of ingredients that could spawn supercells—the most dangerous type of thunderstorm. According to the NWS, a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread a warm, moist boundary layer along and east of a surface trough. This setup will fuel instability, with MLCAPE values exceeding 2000 J/kg across parts of North Dakota into northern Minnesota by late afternoon.
Forecast models show elongated hodographs, which promote storm organization and the potential for rotating updrafts. That means supercells are likely, and with them comes the risk of large to very large hail—anywhere from golf-ball to softball size. The NWS warns that some clusters of storms could also develop, increasing the threat of damaging winds across a broader area.
But hail isn't the only concern. The NWS notes that some tornado risk will focus across northern Minnesota, where lower temperature-dewpoint spreads and enlarged hodographs become co-located for a few hours. Any organized clustering could result in localized corridors of greater severe-wind potential. The severe threat may persist as storms move into a larger portion of northern and central Minnesota through late evening, with a general weakening trend expected overnight due to increasing CINH and weakening buoyancy.
This latest alert comes on the heels of other severe weather events across the country, including a monsoonal thunderstorm alert that put three states on high alert for flash floods. It's a stark reminder that summer storm season is in full swing.
For those in the path of tonight's storm, the NWS offers these safety tips:
- Stay Weather Ready: Keep listening to local news or a NOAA Weather Radio for updates on severe thunderstorm watches and warnings.
- At Your House: If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued, go to your secure location immediately. Damaging wind or large hail may be approaching. Take your pets if time allows.
- At Your Workplace or School: Stay away from windows. Avoid large open rooms like cafeterias, gymnasiums, or auditoriums.
- Outside: Go inside a sturdy building right away. Sheds and storage facilities are not safe. Never take shelter under a tree—it could fall on you, and it increases your risk of lightning strike.
- In a Vehicle: If you're driving, pull over safely and stay inside the vehicle until the storm passes.
While the primary threat tonight is hail and wind, residents should also be aware of the potential for flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas. The NWS will continue to monitor the situation and issue updates as needed.
Stay safe, everyone, and keep an eye on the sky.
