The hype train that followed Arch Manning into the 2025 season has officially derailed. After two years of waiting behind Quinn Ewers, the former No. 1 recruit was supposed to lead Texas to a national title and maybe a Heisman along the way. Instead, early struggles derailed the Longhorns' playoff hopes, and now the experts are pushing back hard.
In a recent CBS Sports poll conducted by analyst Blake Brockermeyer, a panel of two general managers, two NFL scouts, and six college football personnel executives was asked to weigh in on the outlet's Top 150 player rankings. The verdict? Manning is one of the most overrated players in the country.
One NFL scout didn't mince words: "He's not a top 10 quarterback in the country, let alone a top 10 player. Watch him throw a deep out, he'll sail it every time." That kind of criticism is a far cry from the preseason buzz that had Manning pegged as a future first-overall pick.
While Manning drew plenty of "overrated" votes, he wasn't the top pick in that category. That dubious honor went to Oklahoma State's Drew Mestemaker, who was singled out by a high-ranking ACC personnel executive: "Feel like most would point to Arch here but I go with Drew. Think the rest of the list is proven and really legit talents. In my mind, Drew is the one and only unproven player at the Power Four level. I like some of the traits and he has ability, but I'm rolling with him because I think he is overpaid and [Oklahoma State] won't even make a bowl game."
Oregon's Dante Moore also caught a few "overrated" votes, mostly due to his turnover issues in big games. But the conversation around Manning is the loudest, especially given the competitive fire he's shown on the field.
Manning's fall from grace is a reminder of how quickly narratives shift in college football. Just a year ago, he was the golden boy of the sport, the heir to the Manning dynasty. Now, he's fighting to prove he belongs in the top tier of quarterbacks.
Texas fans will hope this criticism fuels him, but the doubters are loud. As one evaluator put it, the gap between Manning's reputation and his on-field production is becoming hard to ignore. Whether he can silence the critics in 2026 remains to be seen, but for now, he's wearing the "overrated" label.
For more on the evolving landscape of college football, check out how other young quarterbacks are handling pressure and the latest on injury reports across the NFL.
