Even if Aryna Sabalenka lifts a third consecutive US Open trophy in Flushing Meadows, she may have to hand over the world No. 1 ranking. That's the high-stakes math facing the Belarusian powerhouse as the tournament reaches its business end.
Sabalenka has held the top spot since October 2024, but her grip has loosened thanks to a surge from 2026 Australian Open champion Elena Rybakina. The Kazakh star, who advanced to the semifinals with a hard-fought quarterfinal win over Naomi Osaka, is just one victory away from leapfrogging Sabalenka in the rankings.
Rybakina, however, insists the ranking isn't her primary motivation. "The No. 1 ranking is, of course, one of the goals," she said. "But I think the main focus for me, for the team, is to win the titles, and then the ranking will follow up. We go match by match, but obviously, we want to win the titles, the tournaments. So that, I would say, is the main goal."
Sabalenka, who battled past Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova in a three-set thriller on Tuesday, was asked directly whether she'd accept losing the No. 1 spot if it meant winning the title. Her response was as direct as her groundstrokes: "Yes, I'll be more than happy. I don't mind. Three-peat sounds great."
The scenario is more nuanced than it appears. If Rybakina stumbles against Qinwen Zheng in the semifinals, the door opens for Coco Gauff or Jessica Pegula to claim the top ranking—but only if they go all the way and win the US Open. For Sabalenka, the path to keeping No. 1 is straightforward: win the title and hope Rybakina loses before the final.
This ranking race has added an extra layer of drama to an already electrifying tournament. Fans are watching every match with an eye on the numbers, and Sabalenka's emotional ups and downs have been a storyline in themselves.
Should Sabalenka lift the trophy and still drop in the rankings, it would be a historic oddity—a champion dethroned by the very system that crowns her. But as she made clear, her priorities are simple. "I'll be more than happy," she said, with a grin that suggested she's already dreaming of that three-peat.
The race to No. 1 isn't just about points; it's about momentum, confidence, and the kind of mental fortitude that has been questioned in the past. But for now, Sabalenka is focused on the only thing she can control: winning matches.
With the semifinals looming, the tennis world is on edge. Will Rybakina seize her chance? Will Gauff or Pegula crash the party? Or will Sabalenka's three-peat overshadow everything? One thing's for sure: this US Open has become a battle for the ages, both on the court and in the rankings.
