The first full slate of NFL preseason games is in the books, and while the scoreboard doesn't count, the impressions linger. From breakout rookie performances to concerning debuts, Week 1 gave fans plenty to chew on. But beyond the individual storylines, the analytics crowd has already started projecting how the regular season might shake out.
ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), a computer model that simulates the season 10,000 times, has identified the five teams most likely to finish at the bottom of the league. It's a projection based on current roster strength, results so far, and the remaining schedule. While it's early, these rankings offer a glimpse into which squads might be in for a long year.
The Bottom Five
According to FPI, the following teams are expected to be the worst in the NFL after the opening week of the preseason:
- Miami Dolphins
- Arizona Cardinals
- New York Jets
- Cleveland Browns
- Las Vegas Raiders
The Dolphins sit at the very bottom of the projections. Miami isn't expected to contend in the AFC East, and the model suggests they'll struggle on both sides of the ball. It's a far cry from the playoff hopes some had entering the year.
Meanwhile, the Browns' rough start has been highlighted by Shedeur Sanders' struggles in Cleveland, which have only amplified the concerns around that franchise. The Raiders, Jets, and Cardinals round out the list, each facing significant question marks.
What the Model Says
FPI is designed to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward. It represents how many points above or below average a team is, and the projected results come from those 10,000 simulations. It's a data-driven approach that doesn't care about hype or narratives—just numbers.
Of course, the preseason isn't always a reliable indicator of regular-season success. Many teams rest their starters, and the sample size is tiny. But for these five squads, the early returns suggest they'll be fighting an uphill battle all season.
As the preseason rolls on, we'll see if any of these teams can defy the projections. But for now, the analytics have spoken, and the preseason betting market is already adjusting to these expectations.
Who do you think will be the NFL's worst teams in 2026? The debate is just getting started.
