The debate over Arch Manning's NFL future has reached a fever pitch. After a season of erratic play, ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. has weighed in with a definitive take: the Texas quarterback's decision for the 2027 NFL Draft is not even a question—he must return to college.
Manning, the nephew of Peyton and Eli, entered the 2026 season as a potential No. 1 overall pick. But his on-field performance has been a roller coaster, and he has since fallen out of Todd McShay's top-10 quarterback rankings for the 2027 draft. Kiper, a longtime draft analyst, agrees with that assessment.
Speaking on First Draft Monday, Kiper laid out his reasoning. "All I'll say is right now, you've got to go back to college for another year," he said. "And if you don't, it's got to be the Green Bay Packer model of Jordan Love and Aaron Rodgers where you've got your guy and you're picking late first round, and you've got your quarterback for another three years—I'm saying three years. I'm not saying one, I'm not saying two."
Kiper drew a parallel to Patrick Mahomes, who sat for a year before taking over in Kansas City. But for Manning, he suggests an even longer runway. "It's got to be the Jordan Love, Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers model if he comes out," he added.
The root of Kiper's concern is consistency—or the lack of it. "In every game, you get the good, the bad and the ugly," he said. "That's what you're getting. It's a wild ride. It's going to be up, down and around. You might get a quarter, you might get a series, you might get a glimpse, you might get, maybe, a half. But you're not going to get consistency. You're just not going to. I keep waiting and waiting and waiting for that game."
Paul Finebaum, the self-proclaimed voice of the SEC, has gone a step further, suggesting Manning should be benched at Texas. "Yes, it is time," Finebaum said on First Take. "It's a painful thing to say, and we all know the backstory. But what's the point of continuing this agony? Go ahead and try somebody else. If you're going to give KJ the reps in practice, let him start the game."
Finebaum also pointed a finger at head coach Steve Sarkisian, accusing him of overcomplicating Manning's development. "I still think he can be an elite quarterback, but I also believe that Steve Sarkisian has completely screwed it up," Finebaum said. "First of all, Sarkisian shouldn't be the offensive coordinator calling the plays. He's also the head coach. I think he has put too much into Arch Manning's head."
The Longhorns have dropped two straight games to Oklahoma and Florida, and Manning's struggles have been front and center. The pressure is mounting, and the quarterback competition at Texas is suddenly a storyline to watch.
Kiper's stance is clear: Manning needs more time to develop. Whether that happens in Austin or elsewhere, the 2027 draft decision seems set. As doubts about his NFL future grow, the path forward is anything but simple.
