Summer is winding down, and the countdown to kickoff is officially on. With the Fourth of July behind us, football fans are already dreaming of September—and the NFL's 2026 schedule is packed with blockbusters right out of the gate. Think a Super Bowl rematch between the Seahawks and Patriots, plus a prime-time showdown between the Cowboys and Giants.
But not every team gets an easy ride. ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) has crunched the numbers, running thousands of simulations to identify which clubs face the steepest climbs this season. The result? A list of 10 teams that will have to earn every win.
The 10 Toughest Schedules
Here's how the FPI ranks the hardest slates for the 2026 regular season:
- Arizona Cardinals
- Los Angeles Rams
- Miami Dolphins
- Dallas Cowboys
- Seattle Seahawks
- Washington Commanders
- Los Angeles Chargers
- New York Giants
- Las Vegas Raiders
- Chicago Bears
The NFC East is particularly well-represented, with the Cowboys, Commanders, and Giants all landing in the top 10. That division is already a gauntlet, and these projections suggest the road won't get any easier.
How FPI Works
ESPN's model isn't guessing—it's simulating. The FPI is a projection-based system that runs 10,000 simulations of the entire season, factoring in each team's strength, results to date, and remaining schedule. As ESPN explains, it's "the best predictor of a team's performance going forward," measuring how many points above or below average a team is. For a closer look at the other end of the spectrum, check out the NFL's five easiest schedules.
The FPI's track record speaks for itself. It's the same system that has predicted national championship blowouts in college football, and it's now turning its attention to the pros. For the teams on this list, the path to the playoffs is narrow—but that's what makes September so exciting.
Which of these tough-schedule teams will defy the odds? Only time—and a few thousand more simulations—will tell.
