The 2026 NFL preseason is officially underway, and while the games on the field are mostly about evaluation and depth charts, the math geeks in the analytics world are already looking ahead. ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) has run its simulations for the upcoming regular season, and the results are in: the computer has crowned a projected winner for all eight divisions.
The FPI is a sophisticated projection model that measures team strength and simulates the rest of the season 10,000 times to determine the most likely outcomes. It updates daily, so these picks could shift as soon as real games start counting. But for now, here's how the sausage is made: the model weighs current rosters, past performance, and remaining schedule to come up with a probability for each team to win its division.
So, who does the silicon say will be raising the banner in January? Let's break it down by conference.
AFC Projections: Familiar Faces on Top
In the AFC East, the Buffalo Bills are the clear favorites. Josh Allen and company have dominated the division for years, and the FPI sees no reason to bet against them. Over in the AFC North, the Baltimore Ravens get the nod, likely riding Lamar Jackson's dual-threat brilliance and a stout defense. The AFC South belongs to the Houston Texans, who have been on the rise, while the AFC West is a no-brainer: the Kansas City Chiefs, with Patrick Mahomes at the helm, are the model's pick to continue their reign.
NFC Projections: A Mix of Reigning Champs and Rising Contenders
Out West, the Los Angeles Rams are projected to reclaim the division crown, edging out the 49ers in a tight race. The NFC East is a bit of a surprise: the Philadelphia Eagles are favored despite the Cowboys' offseason moves. In the South, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are picked to hold off the Falcons, while the Detroit Lions are the model's choice in the NFC North, a testament to their recent surge under Dan Campbell.
Of course, these are just numbers. The FPI is designed to be the best predictor of future performance, but as any fan knows, football is played on the field, not on a spreadsheet. Injuries, breakout stars, and coaching decisions can all flip a division race on its head. The model updates daily, so these projections will evolve as the season progresses.
If you're looking for more analytical deep dives, check out ESPN's take on unbeaten contenders or the latest buzz around coaching hot takes. For now, the FPI has spoken, but the real drama starts in a few weeks.
So, who do you have winning these divisions? The computer has its say, but the beauty of sports is that anything can happen. Let the games begin.
