The winds of change are blowing hard in Miami. After a tumultuous season, the Dolphins appear poised to make a franchise-altering decision at quarterback, signaling the likely end of the Tua Tagovailoa era. While the move seems inevitable, the question of who will lead the offense in 2026 remains shrouded in uncertainty, with one veteran name generating buzz.
The Cost of Moving On
Tagovailoa's future with the team is caught in a financial vise. His performance last season—2,660 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions—led to a late-season benching for Quinn Ewers. The bigger issue, however, is his contract. With a staggering $56.2 million cap hit looming for 2026, the Dolphins are strongly considering releasing their former first-round pick. Such a move would be painful, saddling the team with a monumental $99.2 million in dead cap money.
As ESPN's Jeremy Fowler noted, the league-wide belief is that Miami will have to cut Tagovailoa due to his $54 million in guarantees. "The hope would be that Miami could pull off a trade where a new team would take on and absorb a lot of that money... Well, teams don't really want to do that, so they might wait this out and see if they pay for it all," Fowler reported. This leaves the Dolphins in a tough spot, likely having to shoulder the financial burden themselves.
A New Destination for Tua?
If Tagovailoa hits the open market, speculation about his next stop will ignite. FOX Sports analyst Henry McKenna has already projected a potential landing spot, predicting the quarterback could take his talents to the Indianapolis Colts. A fresh start elsewhere might be the reset Tagovailoa needs to revive his promising career.
Who Steps In for Miami?
The million-dollar question in South Florida is: who's next? According to McKenna's projections, the answer might be veteran Geno Smith. The idea is that Smith could be a fit for new head coach Jeff Hafley and the incoming leadership. However, the prospect is being met with more skepticism than excitement.
Smith's career has been a rollercoaster. He enjoyed a remarkable renaissance with the Seattle Seahawks, earning two Pro Bowl nods and the 2022 Comeback Player of the Year award. But his 2025 campaign with the Las Vegas Raiders was a significant step back. Smith completed 67.4% of his passes for 3,025 yards but threw 17 interceptions against 19 touchdowns, raising concerns about his trajectory.
An Uninspiring Solution?
Labeling Smith as an "uninspiring replacement" might be putting it mildly for a fanbase craving stability and star power. While he offers experience, the argument that the 34-year-old is on the decline is a valid one. If the Dolphins' goal is to energize their loyal supporters and make a splash in the AFC East, acquiring Smith feels like a temporary patch rather than a long-term solution.
The Dolphins' quarterback conundrum is the defining storyline of their offseason. Releasing Tagovailoa is a costly but probable step. Turning to Geno Smith, however, feels like a safe, short-term gamble that may do little to close the gap on the conference's elite. As the new regime takes over, all eyes will be on whether they settle for a bridge quarterback or make a more aggressive play to find their next franchise signal-caller.
