While the NFL world is laser-focused on the impending free agency frenzy, FOX Sports analyst Colin Cowherd has thrown a curveball. He's already looking 14 months ahead, releasing his full first-round projection for the 2026 NFL Draft. In a move that highlights his penchant for early—and often shifting—predictions, Cowherd's mock offers a fascinating, if premature, glimpse into the future of the league.
The Top of the Board: A Familiar Name and a Shocker
Cowherd's vision for the top pick is one most analysts share: the Las Vegas Raiders selecting Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza with the No. 1 overall selection. The 2025 Heisman Trophy winner, who led the Hoosiers to a perfect 16-0 season and a national championship, is hailed as the clear top prospect. "Fernando Mendoza is easily the best quarterback prospect," Cowherd declared. "Is he Matt Ryan plus Heisman Winner? Big arm, moves well, humble, gratitude, and you get that rookie quarterback contract for the next four to five years."
Where Cowherd deviates from the pack is with the second pick. He projects the New York Jets will pass on Ohio State's highly-touted Arvell Reese in favor of Texas Tech edge rusher David Bailey. "My second pick is a little different than everyone else's mock," Cowherd admitted. "I think the Jets draft David Bailey, the best pure edge [in the draft]. He'll walk into the Jets... This guy is a plug-and-play guy. He will be starting the first week."
Cowherd's Full Early Top Ten
Here is how Cowherd sees the top of the 2026 draft playing out:
- 1. Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana
- 2. New York Jets: David Bailey, Edge, Texas Tech
- 3. Arizona Cardinals: Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami
- 4. Tennessee Titans: Arvell Reese, Edge, Ohio State
- 5. New York Giants: Caleb Downs, S, Alabama
- 6. Cleveland Browns: Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State
- 7. Washington Commanders: Mansoor Delane, CB, Virginia Tech
- 8. New Orleans Saints: Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame
- 9. Kansas City Chiefs: Spencer Fano, OT, Utah
- 10. Cincinnati Bengals: Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State
A Track Record of Volatility
Fans should take these projections with a grain of salt, as Cowherd's mock drafts have a notorious history of evolving—sometimes drastically—before the actual event. His predictions for the 2025 draft, for instance, were well off the mark. He had the New York Giants selecting Shedeur Sanders third overall, the New England Patriots taking pass rusher Abdul Carter, and the Dallas Cowboys drafting running back Omarion Hampton, none of which came to pass.
This early look is more about sparking conversation than providing a reliable roadmap. With the entire NFL Free Agency Forecast period about to reshape team rosters, and the 2025 college football season yet to be played, the draft order and team needs are incredibly fluid. In fact, several teams Cowherd has picking early, like the Giants, could look dramatically different after free agency, especially with rumors like the Giants emerging as a shocking suitor for Travis Kelce.
The timing of this release is particularly notable. With major moves on the horizon that will directly impact draft capital and team philosophy—such as potential blockbusters like the Eagles poised to ship A.J. Brown to the Patriots—this mock draft exists in a vacuum. It's a speculative exercise that ignores the domino effect of the coming weeks.
Looking Way Down the Road
The 2026 NFL Draft is scheduled for April 23-25 in Pittsburgh, giving Cowherd and every other analyst plenty of time to revise their boards countless times. For now, this serves as an energetic, if early, kickoff to the 2026 draft conversation. It reminds fans that while the immediate future is all about which teams are primed for a major free agency splash, the NFL's planning cycle never truly stops. One thing is certain: between now and April 2026, Colin Cowherd's mock draft will look very, very different.
