The 2026 college football season is shaping up to be a pressure cooker for several high-profile head coaches. According to a recent evaluation by CBS Sports, three FBS coaches have landed in the dreaded “win or be fired” category, meaning their job security is hanging by a thread. Let's dive into who's feeling the heat and what they need to do to survive.
Dave Aranda: Baylor's Roller Coaster Ride
Dave Aranda's tenure at Baylor has been anything but predictable. After a rough 2-win debut in 2020, he orchestrated a stunning turnaround to 12 wins in 2021. But consistency has been elusive. The Bears have yet to post back-to-back winning seasons under Aranda, and the program has been on a wild ride ever since.
In 2024, Baylor rebounded from a 3-9 disaster to go 8-5, only to slide back to 5-7 last season. The defense was a major culprit, allowing 32.6 points and a staggering 194.9 rushing yards per game. Over the final six games, Baylor surrendered 210 combined points in five conference losses. Aranda's squad opens 2026 against Auburn at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sept. 5—a game that could set the tone for his future.
Mike Norvell: From CFP Snub to Hot Seat
Mike Norvell was riding high after Florida State's 13-win season in 2023, even if a controversial College Football Playoff snub left a bitter taste. He seemed to be building a powerhouse in Tallahassee, but the bottom fell out. The Seminoles entered 2024 ranked 10th in the AP preseason poll, only to crash to 10 losses. A promising win over Alabama to start 2025 gave fans hope, but the team flopped again, finishing 5-7 with just two ACC victories.
Norvell is under contract through 2029, but that security might not matter if the losing continues. The pressure is on for a bounce-back effort, with transfer quarterback Ashton Daniels expected to lead the charge. A strong season could restore Norvell's reputation, but another stumble could spell the end.
Luke Fickell: Wisconsin's Patience Wearing Thin
In Madison, the honeymoon is over for Luke Fickell. After two straight losing seasons, the Badgers are 16-21 under his watch, including a dismal 4-8 finish in 2025. The offense was particularly anemic, averaging just 12.8 points per game—a far cry from the program's historic identity.
Rather than pay a buyout north of $25 million, Wisconsin opted to retain Fickell and invest more in the program. But the clock is ticking. The season kicks off with a huge Week 1 matchup against Notre Dame at Lambeau Field, a game that could either ignite a turnaround or deepen the crisis. Fans are running out of patience, and Fickell knows he needs to deliver results fast.
Other Coaches on the Bubble
Beyond the “win or be fired” trio, several other coaches are feeling the heat. Maryland's Mike Locksley narrowly avoided the 5 rating with a 4.9, placing him in the “start improving now” tier. He's joined by South Carolina's Shane Beamer (4.3) and North Carolina's Bill Belichick (4.1), all of whom need to show progress in 2026. The stakes are high across the board, and the pressure is mounting as the season approaches.
For more on the evolving landscape of college football, check out the recent controversy over pay-to-win in the latest EA Sports game, which has sparked debate among fans. And as the coaching carousel spins, the NFL's recent hiring cycle has drawn criticism for its lack of diversity, a topic that resonates across all levels of football.
The 2026 season promises drama, and for these coaches, it's win or else.
